How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.