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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.